Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to Wörthersee Stadion to face Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's home record at Wörthersee Stadion: 2W 5D 0L from 7 Bundesliga appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 2D 0L from 8 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 73% and Red Bull Salzburg 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 53% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.943 / defence 1.167 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.964 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.343. Data: 15 Austria Klagenfurt games / 15 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.13. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 86% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.00 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.943 / def 1.167 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.964 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Red Bull Salzburg xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 24% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.94) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.96x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
24%
4.25
29%
3.44
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.52
1.51
Red Bull Salzburg xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
19.28
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.51 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 7D 4L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 12W 3D 0L from 15 games, 2.60 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (2W 5D 0L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 2D 0L from 7 away games — 2.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.27 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 3D 0L in their last 15 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.57 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 86%, Red Bull Salzburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 29% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 29% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.51 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.96 / defence 0.85, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 24% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 53%, Red Bull Salzburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Austria Klagenfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.