Admira Wacker 4-0 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt make the trip to BSFZ-Arena to face Admira Wacker in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Admira Wacker have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Admira Wacker against 1.00 for Austria Klagenfurt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Admira Wacker register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Austria Klagenfurt in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 0.68 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.987 / defence 1.150 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.600 / away 1.520. Data: 1 Admira Wacker games / 1 Austria Klagenfurt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 14% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 53%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 7.14 | Draw 3.03 | Austria Klagenfurt 1.89. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 14% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Admira Wacker 0.68 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.987 / def 1.150 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.600 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Admira Wacker 4 - 0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 14% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 53% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Admira Wacker's attack rating (0.99) and Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.85x) against Admira Wacker's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
14%
7.36
33%
3.00
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.17
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
7.36
14%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
3%
32.54
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.49 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Admira Wacker have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Admira Wacker against 1.00 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
0
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 2 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt 3-3 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt?
Admira Wacker have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Admira Wacker's games and 100% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 0% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Admira Wacker run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker beat Austria Klagenfurt 4-0 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 0.68 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Admira Wacker beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 14% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 53%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Admira Wacker win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 0%, Austria Klagenfurt 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Admira Wacker win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.