Sharjah FC 1-4 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Sharjah FC welcome Baniyas SC to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sharjah FC's 20% rate and Baniyas SC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sharjah FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 8 past contests while Baniyas SC have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 39% versus Baniyas SC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 52% | Baniyas SC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.49 xG and Baniyas SC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.909 / defence 0.896 | Baniyas SC attack 0.785 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.146. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Sharjah FC games / 33 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 20%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Baniyas SC 5.00. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 20% | Baniyas SC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Sharjah FC 1.49 / Baniyas SC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.909 / def 0.896 | Baniyas SC attack 0.785 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Baniyas SC xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC 1 - 4 Baniyas SC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 53% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Record (8 meetings): Sharjah FC 7W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (0.91) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.80
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
Baniyas SC xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.81 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 18W 4D 11L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 7W 7D 19L from 33 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (10W 1D 5L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 11L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 0.97 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 4D 11L in their last 33 games (1.76 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 7W 7D 19L in their last 33 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.94 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sharjah FC 19% BTTS, Baniyas SC 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sharjah FC) and 50% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Baniyas SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 38% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 50% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baniyas SC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Sharjah FC 1-4 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.49 xG and Baniyas SC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.81 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Baniyas SC attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 53% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 20%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 52%, Baniyas SC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.