Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Nasr to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.30 PPG, Al Nasr 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 3 for Al Nasr and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2026, ended 4–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Nasr trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 46% versus Al Nasr 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 54% | Al Nasr 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.46 xG and Al Nasr 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.156 / defence 1.217 | Al Nasr attack 0.933 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Data: 44 Sharjah FC games / 44 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Al Nasr 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 50% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Sharjah FC 1.46 / Al Nasr 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.156 / def 1.217 | Al Nasr attack 0.933 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Nasr xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Sharjah FC 1 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
Record (9 meetings): Sharjah FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.18
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.60
Al Nasr xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.60 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 22W 5D 17L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 16W 13D 15L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.61 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (12W 1D 8L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 5D 17L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al Nasr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sharjah FC) and 62% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sharjah FC's matches and 62% of Al Nasr's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Sharjah FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 1-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.46 xG and Al Nasr 1.60 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 35% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 41%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Al Nasr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.61 PPG, Al Nasr 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.