Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rashid Stadium, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. A 1.10 PPG lead over Al-Ittihad Kalba (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Al-Ittihad Kalba managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The historical record gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 75% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.363 / defence 0.836 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.981 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.773. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 45 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 25%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.363 / def 0.836 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.981 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.773 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 55% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (5 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.36x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.98x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
55%
1.82
20%
4.94
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.67
1.45
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
11%
9.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
3%
37.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.45 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 44 games, going 28W 10D 6L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.20 PPG from 44 outings (14W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 15W 3D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.23 points per game from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.41 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 28W 10D 6L in their last 44 games (2.14 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.18 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
4
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 59% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 4-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.45 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.36 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 25%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 75%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.