Khorfakkan 1-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Khorfakkan welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 0W 1D 6L from 7 outings — 0.14 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.96 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.14. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 14% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 43% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.55 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.932 / defence 0.959 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.641 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.308. Data: 33 Khorfakkan games / 7 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 55% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 55% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Khorfakkan 1.55 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.932 / def 0.959 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.641 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Khorfakkan 1 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 55% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.29 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.92
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.36
0.80
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 0.80 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 6L across 7 games — 0.14 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Khorfakkan by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.57 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Defensively: Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 (0.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.33 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Khorfakkan 0-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Khorfakkan 0% BTTS, Dibba Al-Fujairah 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Khorfakkan and 0% for Dibba Al-Fujairah.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 67% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 33% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 0% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.55 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 55% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 19%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 43%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 0.71 PPG against 0.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.