Khorfakkan 4-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al Nasr travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 February 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 1D 4L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Nasr are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al Nasr 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 50% versus Al Nasr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 62% | Al Nasr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.00 xG and Al Nasr 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / defence 1.122 | Al Nasr attack 0.927 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.179. Khorfakkan's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Khorfakkan games / 16 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 29% | Draw 31% | Al Nasr 40%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Al Nasr 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 38% | Al Nasr 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 29% | Draw 31% | Al Nasr 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Khorfakkan 1.00 / Al Nasr 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.775 / def 1.122 | Al Nasr attack 0.927 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Nasr xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Khorfakkan 4 - 0 Al Nasr.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 29% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
29%
3.44
31%
3.25
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.23
1.23
Al Nasr xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.23 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 4W 3D 9L from 16 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 6L across 16 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Nasr by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.69 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Nasr have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 38%, Al Nasr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Khorfakkan and 75% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 62% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Khorfakkan's matches and 75% of Al Nasr's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Nasr 4-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.00 xG and Al Nasr 1.23 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Nasr landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 29% | Draw 31% | Al Nasr 40%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 62%, Al Nasr 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Nasr's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.