Hatta SC 2-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Hatta SC welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatta SC — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatta SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Hatta SC have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.20 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Hatta SC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Hatta SC in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatta SC 50% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatta SC 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 0.93 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.536 / defence 1.111 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.119 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.658. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Hatta SC games / 50 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 14% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 7.14 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatta SC 40% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 14% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Hatta SC 0.93 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.536 / def 1.111 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.119 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.658 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Hatta SC 2 - 5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 14% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hatta SC's attack rating (0.54) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Hatta SC's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
14%
6.98
24%
4.16
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.00
2.06
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.98
14%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
54.92
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.06 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatta SC's recent record stands at 1W 7D 16L from 24 games, a 0.42 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hatta SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 4L across 24 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hatta SC have managed 0W 4D 8L from 12 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 7W 3D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hatta SC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 7D 16L in their last 24 games (0.42 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 16W 4D 4L in their last 24 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.33 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 10-0 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatta SC 33%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hatta SC) and 75% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Hatta SC's matches and 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Hatta SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Hatta SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Hatta SC 2-5 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 0.93 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Hatta SC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 2.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.54 / defence 1.11 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.12 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 14% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.42. Form held, and they took the win. Hatta SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.