Emirates Club 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Club Stadium plays host to Emirates Club versus Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emirates Club have collected 0.11 PPG across 9 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Emirates Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emirates Club have posted 0W 1D 3L at Emirates Club Stadium — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all games): 2W 5D 2L across 9 Pro League outings this term — 1.22 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad Kalba arrive in superior form — a 1.11 PPG advantage (1.22 vs 0.11) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Emirates Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emirates Club 56% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emirates Club 56% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emirates Club 0.81 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emirates Club attack 0.660 / defence 1.295 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.897 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.334. Emirates Club's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Emirates Club games / 9 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emirates Club 18% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 53%. Fair-value odds: Emirates Club 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Emirates Club 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Emirates Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emirates Club 18% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Emirates Club 0.81 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Emirates Club attack 0.660 / def 1.295 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.897 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Emirates Club xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Emirates Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Emirates Club 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Club Stadium.
What competition is Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Emirates Club a 18% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Emirates Club (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Emirates Club's attack rating (0.66) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.90x) against Emirates Club's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
18%
5.61
29%
3.46
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Emirates Club xG
Total xG
2.35
1.55
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
26.38
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Emirates Club and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emirates Club come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 1D 8L for 0.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Emirates Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Emirates Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Emirates Club's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emirates Club are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emirates Club
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Emirates Club have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 games (0.11 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emirates Club at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emirates Club at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Emirates Club or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emirates Club have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emirates Club have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Emirates Club
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 4 meetings on record, Emirates Club have won 1, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Emirates Club.
Who has won more matches between Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emirates Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emirates Club 25%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Emirates Club) and 50% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Emirates Club have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emirates Club home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emirates Club play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Emirates Club's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emirates Club vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Emirates Club's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Emirates Club have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emirates Club and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 1-1 at Emirates Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emirates Club 0.81 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.55 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emirates Club attack 0.66 / defence 1.29 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emirates Club 18% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 53%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emirates Club 56%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emirates Club's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.