Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Dibba Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 March 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 0W 0D 8L at Dibba Stadium — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 39% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 44% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.72 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.518 / defence 1.089 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.900 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.448. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.518 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 44 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.85. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.72 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.518 / def 1.089 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.900 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
19%
5.31
27%
3.67
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.14
1.42
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.96
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.42 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 1W 1D 16L from 18 games, a 0.22 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 8L across 18 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad Kalba by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 0W 0D 8L from 8 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 16L in their last 18 games (0.22 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 50% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 38%; Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 62% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.72 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.52 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 44%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.