Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Bataeh travel to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 May 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dibba Al-Fujairah register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Bataeh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Bataeh trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 61% versus Al Bataeh 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% | Al Bataeh 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.95 xG and Al Bataeh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.750 / defence 1.098 | Al Bataeh attack 0.871 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.439. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 49 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Al Bataeh 2.17. Al Bataeh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% | Al Bataeh 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.95 / Al Bataeh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.750 / def 1.098 | Al Bataeh attack 0.871 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al Bataeh xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 26% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
Record (3 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 2W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.75) and Al Bataeh's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
26%
3.90
28%
3.59
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.32
1.38
Al Bataeh xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.38 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 4W 5D 14L from 23 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 12L across 23 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.74 PPG, Al Bataeh on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Bataeh's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 0.96 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 games (0.74 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 4W 7D 12L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al Bataeh away?
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
1
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 64%, Al Bataeh 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 36% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 64% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 36% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Bataeh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Bataeh 2-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.95 xG and Al Bataeh 1.38 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Al Bataeh attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% | Draw 28% | Al Bataeh 46%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%, Al Bataeh 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.74 PPG, Al Bataeh 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.