Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baniyas SC face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Baniyas SC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Baniyas SC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 50% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 56% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.02 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.935 / defence 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.433 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.479. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Baniyas SC games / 50 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 16% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 60% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 16% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Baniyas SC 1.02 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.935 / def 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.433 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:25 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Baniyas SC 2 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 16% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (9 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
16%
6.18
21%
4.78
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.19
2.17
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.18
16%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
2%
53.95
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.17 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 11D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.38 PPG from 50 outings (36W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 5W 9D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.20 points per game from 25 outings (16W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.28 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 36W 11D 3L in their last 50 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.96 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Baniyas SC and 60% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 48%; Baniyas SC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 52% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Baniyas SC's matches and 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 2-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.02 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.17 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.43 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 16% | Draw 21% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.