Al-Wasl FC 3-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Zabeel Stadium to face Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 1.50 for Khorfakkan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Wasl FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Khorfakkan in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Wasl FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 60% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 50% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.71 xG and Khorfakkan 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.136 / defence 0.980 | Khorfakkan attack 0.886 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.481. Data: 38 Al-Wasl FC games / 38 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 47% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 3.45. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 47% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.71 / Khorfakkan 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.136 / def 0.980 | Khorfakkan attack 0.886 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Khorfakkan xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC 3 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 47% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 1W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.89x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.22
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.28
Khorfakkan xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.28 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 15W 13D 10L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 19L across 38 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 7W 7D 4L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 4D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.39 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 15W 13D 10L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
3
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 56%, Khorfakkan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Wasl FC and 78% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 78% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Khorfakkan 3-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.71 xG and Khorfakkan 1.28 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Khorfakkan attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 47% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 29%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 50%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.