Al-Wasl FC 2-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Wasl FC face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Wasl FC welcome Al-Jazira to Zabeel Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 31 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Wasl FC — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Jazira stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Jazira's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Wasl FC) versus 1.90 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Al-Jazira 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended Al-Wasl FC 2–2 Al-Jazira — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 62% and Al-Jazira 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 72% | Al-Jazira 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.20 xG and Al-Jazira 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.051 / defence 0.953 | Al-Jazira attack 1.027 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.886 / away 1.766. Data: built from Al-Wasl FC's last 32 games and Al-Jazira's last 32.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.05 | Draw 4.84 | Al-Jazira 3.27. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.20 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Wasl FC's last 10 home games and Al-Jazira's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Wasl FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Jazira 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 31 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.20 / Al-Jazira 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.051 / def 0.953 | Al-Jazira attack 1.027 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.886 / away 1.766 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al-Jazira xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira FAQs
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Thursday 31 October 2024 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Wasl FC 2 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira is a Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 49% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.05) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Wasl FC's last 32 games and Al-Jazira's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
49%
2.05
21%
4.84
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.92
1.73
Al-Jazira xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
3%
29.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.73 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 32 games, going 23W 6D 3L for 2.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Al-Wasl FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 12W 2D 2L across their last 16 home games, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 16 away games (5W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.03 scored and 1.78 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 75%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC (Home) vs Al-Jazira (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira Form FAQs
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 23W 6D 3L in their last 32 games (2.34 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 13W 8D 11L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won Al-Jazira 0-5 Al-Wasl FC.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Al-Jazira have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 56%, Al-Jazira 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Wasl FC and 69% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 69% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 69% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 81% of Al-Jazira's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.20 xG and Al-Jazira 1.73 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Al-Jazira attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 49% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 31%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 72%, Al-Jazira 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.