Al Wahda FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Nahyan Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 2.50 (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 56% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 61% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.24 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.144 / defence 1.099 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.206 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.503. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Al Wahda FC games / 41 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 24% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 24% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.24 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.144 / def 1.099 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.206 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 24% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
24%
4.24
22%
4.62
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.99
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
3%
31.07
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.99 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 24W 11D 6L from 41 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 11L across 41 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wahda FC on 2.02 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 8W 6D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.56 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 61%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 24W 11D 6L in their last 41 games (2.02 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 22W 8D 11L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 5D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 55%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Wahda FC) and 40% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 35%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 40% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.24 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.99 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.21 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 24% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 55%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 61%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 2.02 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.