Al Wahda FC 4-1 Emirates Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al Wahda FC welcome Emirates Club to Al Nahyan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 5D 0L from 6 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emirates Club stand at 0W 1D 5L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Emirates Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emirates Club's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al Wahda FC have the edge — a 1.16 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.17) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Emirates Club trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 50% versus Emirates Club 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wahda FC 17% | Emirates Club 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.19 xG and Emirates Club 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.800 / defence 1.006 | Emirates Club attack 0.848 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.269. Emirates Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al Wahda FC games / 6 Emirates Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 34% | Emirates Club 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Emirates Club 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Emirates Club 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 34% | Emirates Club 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.19 / Emirates Club 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.800 / def 1.006 | Emirates Club attack 0.848 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Emirates Club xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club?
Al Wahda FC 4 - 1 Emirates Club.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 36% chance of winning, Emirates Club a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 1W-5D-0L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Emirates Club (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (0.80) and Emirates Club's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emirates Club's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
36%
2.80
34%
2.95
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.08
Emirates Club xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.08 for Emirates Club, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 5D 0L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emirates Club's form line: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, 0.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emirates Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Emirates Club.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Emirates Club are on 0.67 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Emirates Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 5D 0L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Emirates Club have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Have Al Wahda FC or Emirates Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Emirates Club in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Emirates Club specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
0
Emirates Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 3, Emirates Club have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Emirates Club 0-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 50%, Emirates Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Emirates Club.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Emirates Club in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Emirates Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Emirates Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 50% of Emirates Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Emirates Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 50% of Emirates Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Emirates Club tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Emirates Club in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Emirates Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Emirates Club 4-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.19 xG and Emirates Club 1.08 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Emirates Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.41, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 34% | Emirates Club 30%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 17%, Emirates Club 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Emirates Club's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Emirates Club shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.