Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Al Bataeh — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Wahda FC's games and 70% of Al Bataeh's (from Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Al Wahda FC 2–1 Al Bataeh — a Al Wahda FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 50% versus Al Bataeh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 54% | Al Bataeh 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.975 / defence 0.963 | Al Bataeh attack 0.940 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.443. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 26 games and Al Bataeh's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.96 | Draw 4.46 | Al Bataeh 3.78. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al Wahda FC 26 games, Al Bataeh 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.89 / Al Bataeh 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.975 / def 0.963 | Al Bataeh attack 0.940 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 51% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 26 games and Al Bataeh's last 26, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
51%
1.96
22%
4.46
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.31
Al Bataeh xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.31 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 26 games, going 15W 7D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.81 PPG from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across their last 13 home games, a 1.54 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.15 scored and 2.19 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Pre-Season
Al Bataeh
Pre-Season
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al Bataeh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Pre-Season
Al Bataeh
Pre-Season
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 7D 4L in their last 26 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won Al Bataeh 0-4 Al Wahda FC.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 54%, Al Bataeh 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Wahda FC and 77% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 54% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 77% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 69% of Al Bataeh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Al Bataeh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Al Bataeh attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al Bataeh 26%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 54%, Al Bataeh 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.