Al Urooba 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Fujairah Stadium to take on Al Urooba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al Urooba's 0% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 0.79 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.839 / defence 1.564 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.866 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 0.916 / away 0.859. Data: 2 Al Urooba games / 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 23% | Draw 33% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fujairah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 23% | Draw 33% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Urooba 0.79 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.839 / def 1.564 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.866 / def 1.026 | league avg home 0.916 / away 0.859 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:45 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Fujairah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Urooba 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Fujairah Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 23% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.50 | L5 L-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.84x the league average against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
23%
4.26
33%
2.99
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
1.95
1.16
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.26
23%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 16.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.16 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Urooba are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.50 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 0%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al Urooba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Urooba's recent matches and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Urooba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Urooba's recent games and 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 1-1 at Fujairah Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 0.79 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.16 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.84 / defence 1.56 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 23% | Draw 33% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 100%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Urooba scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.50 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.