Al Urooba 2-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baniyas SC make the trip to Fujairah Stadium to face Al Urooba in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al Urooba (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba's home record at Fujairah Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Baniyas SC are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Urooba 0W, Baniyas SC 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Baniyas SC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Baniyas SC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 59% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 54% | Baniyas SC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.16 xG and Baniyas SC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.700 / defence 1.343 | Baniyas SC attack 0.904 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.247. Al Urooba's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Al Urooba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Al Urooba games / 22 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 29% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Baniyas SC 2.22. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baniyas SC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 70% | Baniyas SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Fujairah Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 29% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Urooba 1.16 / Baniyas SC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.700 / def 1.343 | Baniyas SC attack 0.904 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Fujairah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC?
Al Urooba 2 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Fujairah Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 29% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Urooba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Baniyas SC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Al Urooba and Baniyas SC in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.70x the league average against Baniyas SC's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.90x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
29%
3.43
25%
3.92
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
2.68
1.51
Baniyas SC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.51 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 1W 8D 13L from 22 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 8L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baniyas SC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Urooba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Urooba have managed 1W 5D 5L from 11 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baniyas SC's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baniyas SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Urooba are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.36 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 1W 8D 13L in their last 22 games (0.50 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Baniyas SC's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.73 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Urooba have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Urooba
0
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Baniyas SC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 2, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 27 March 2025, when Baniyas SC 2-1 Al Urooba.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 64%, Baniyas SC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Urooba) and 54% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Al Urooba have failed to score in 36% of games; Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al Urooba's games and 54% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Urooba's recent games and 54% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Urooba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Urooba defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Fujairah Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.16 xG and Baniyas SC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.70 / defence 1.34 against Baniyas SC attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 29% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 45%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Urooba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 54%, Baniyas SC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Al Urooba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.