Al Urooba 0-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fujairah Stadium plays host to Al Urooba versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 11 March 2022 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Urooba have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Urooba have posted 1W 5D 3L at Fujairah Stadium — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Jazira are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Urooba lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Jazira winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Urooba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 71% versus Al-Jazira 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Urooba 59% | Al-Jazira 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.04 xG and Al-Jazira 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.907 / defence 1.593 | Al-Jazira attack 0.985 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.194. Data: 18 Al Urooba games / 17 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 78% | Al-Jazira 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Fujairah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Urooba 1.04 / Al-Jazira 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.907 / def 1.593 | Al-Jazira attack 0.985 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Jazira xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:45 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Fujairah Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Al Urooba 0 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Fujairah Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 20% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Urooba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
Record (1 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Urooba's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.98x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
20%
4.95
24%
4.22
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
2.92
1.87
Al-Jazira xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
3%
32.23
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.87 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Al Urooba have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 1W 7D 9L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 10W 2D 5L from 17 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Urooba have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.59 PPG overall — Al Urooba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Urooba are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.71 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 1W 7D 9L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Urooba's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Urooba or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
0
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Al Urooba 4-5 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Al Urooba, 50% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Urooba and 62% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Al Urooba's games and 50% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Urooba's matches and 62% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Urooba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Urooba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Urooba 0-1 at Fujairah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.04 xG and Al-Jazira 1.87 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Urooba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.91 / defence 1.59 against Al-Jazira attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 56%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 59%, Al-Jazira 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.