Al Nasr 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Nasr welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al Nasr have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Nasr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Al Nasr have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2025, ended Al Nasr 0–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 63% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 65% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.30 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.032 / defence 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.383. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 49 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.29 | Draw 4.14 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.20. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 70% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al Nasr 1.30 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.032 / def 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 30% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 49 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.94
1.64
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.05
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.64 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 21W 10D 18L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 35W 9D 5L from 49 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 24 home games (13W 4D 7L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 15W 6D 3L from their last 24 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.53 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 21W 10D 18L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 35W 9D 5L in their last 49 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.79 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2022, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-0 Al Nasr.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
4
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Nasr and 75% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Nasr's games and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Nasr's matches and 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.30 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.