Al Nasr 1-0 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatta SC make the trip to Al Maktoum Stadium to face Al Nasr in Pro League (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Thursday 28 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Nasr's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Nasr's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hatta SC have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hatta SC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across their last 7 road games (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al Nasr. A 1.00 PPG lead over Hatta SC (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Al Nasr, 0 for Hatta SC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Al Nasr 3–0 Hatta SC — a Al Nasr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Nasr — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Hatta SC — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 47% versus Hatta SC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 53% | Hatta SC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.81 xG and Hatta SC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.845 / defence 0.806 | Hatta SC attack 0.936 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.677. Hatta SC's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Nasr's projected output up. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 42 games and Hatta SC's last 15.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 50% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.99 | Draw 4.33 | Hatta SC 3.75. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Hatta SC's last 7 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 40% (last 10 home games) | Hatta SC 86% (last 7 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 50% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Al Nasr 1.81 / Hatta SC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.845 / def 0.806 | Hatta SC attack 0.936 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.677 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Hatta SC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Hatta SC FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Hatta SC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Hatta SC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 28 March 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Hatta SC?
Al Nasr 1 - 0 Hatta SC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Hatta SC part of?
Al Nasr vs Hatta SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 50% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Nasr and Hatta SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Nasr's attack at 0.84x the league average against Hatta SC's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (0.94x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 42 games and Hatta SC's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.33
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.08
1.26
Hatta SC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
4%
23.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Hatta SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.26 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Hatta SC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 12L across 15 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Nasr by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatta SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatta SC's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Nasr are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.80 scored and 2.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Hatta SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Hatta SC
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Hatta SC Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 1W 2D 12L in their last 15 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Hatta SC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.67 PPG; Hatta SC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Hatta SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hatta SC in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Al Nasr and Hatta SC, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Nasr have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won Hatta SC 0-3 Al Nasr on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al Nasr
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Hatta SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Hatta SC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 3, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Hatta SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Al Nasr 2-0 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Hatta SC?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Hatta SC 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Hatta SC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Nasr have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Hatta SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Hatta SC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Nasr's games and 83% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Hatta SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Nasr's recent games and 67% of Hatta SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Hatta SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 83% of Hatta SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Hatta SC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Hatta SC 1-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.81 xG and Hatta SC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hatta SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.84 / defence 0.81 against Hatta SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.41, drawn from 42/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 50% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 27%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 53%, Hatta SC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatta SC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Hatta SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.