Al Nasr 1-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Nasr at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dibba Al-Fujairah make the trip to Al Maktoum Stadium to face Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 26 September 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Maktoum Stadium this season.
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 0.00 PPG across 4 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 4L. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Nasr. A 1.80 PPG lead over Dibba Al-Fujairah (1.80 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Nasr lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 0% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 0% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.34 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.886 / defence 0.900 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.832 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.255. Data: 30 Al Nasr games / 4 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.85. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Al Nasr 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Nasr 1.34 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.886 / def 0.900 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.832 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 46% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (2 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Nasr's attack at 0.89x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.83x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.60
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.28
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.94 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form line: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 1.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 100%.
Defensively: Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
Have Al Nasr or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Nasr
2
Draws
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 0, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 0%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Al Nasr) and 100% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Al Nasr have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Nasr's recent games and 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah finished level at 1-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.34 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 0%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al-Fujairah conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.