Al Nasr 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Nasr face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Al Maktoum Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Maktoum Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Al Wahda FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al Nasr — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 41% versus Al Wahda FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 44% | Al Wahda FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.05 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.711 / defence 0.848 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.862 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.780. Al Nasr's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Al Nasr games / 34 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 29% | Draw 31% | Al Wahda FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Al Wahda FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 20% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 29% | Draw 31% | Al Wahda FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Nasr 1.05 / Al Wahda FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.711 / def 0.848 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.862 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.780 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al Wahda FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 29% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.71) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (0.86x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.26
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.36
1.30
Al Wahda FC xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.30 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 9W 8D 17L from 34 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 7L across 34 games — 1.97 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Nasr heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 7W 2D 8L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 12W 2D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 20W 7D 7L in their last 34 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 4-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al Nasr
5
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 29%, Al Wahda FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Al Nasr) and 53% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 47%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Al Nasr's recent games and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.05 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.71 / defence 0.85 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 29% | Draw 31% | Al Wahda FC 41%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 44%, Al Wahda FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.