Al Nasr 3-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Nasr face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Nasr welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 10 January 2025 at 13:05 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al Nasr have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.60 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Al Nasr's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's (from Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Nasr, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended Al Nasr 2–2 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 62% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 65% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Al Nasr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.71 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.051 / defence 0.897 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.908 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.949 / away 1.477. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 37 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 37.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.15 | Draw 3.41 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.13. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 January 2025 at 13:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Al Nasr 1.71 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.051 / def 0.897 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.908 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.949 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:05 UK time on Friday 10 January 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr 3 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 37 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.41
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.91
1.20
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
4%
22.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.20 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 17W 7D 13L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 10W 13D 14L from 37 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 18 home games (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 5W 6D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.59 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 68%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 17W 7D 13L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.89 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Apr 2023, when Al Nasr won Al Nasr 3-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Nasr
4
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Al Nasr 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 67% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al Nasr's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.71 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.