Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Jazira welcome Sharjah FC to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Jazira have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Sharjah FC and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 52% versus Sharjah FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 52% | Sharjah FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.039 / defence 0.852 | Sharjah FC attack 1.095 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.497. Data: 43 Al-Jazira games / 42 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 40% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 30% | Sharjah FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 40% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Jazira 1.50 / Sharjah FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.039 / def 0.852 | Sharjah FC attack 1.095 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira 5 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 40% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 4 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.04) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
40%
2.51
25%
4.04
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.89
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.40 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 18W 11D 13L from 42 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 16L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.55 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 10W 3D 8L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.57 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 21W 5D 16L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.57 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Jazira have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
1
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 38%, Sharjah FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Jazira) and 52% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 57% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 52% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Sharjah FC 5-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against Sharjah FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 40% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 35%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 52%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.55 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.