Al-Jazira 2-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 3 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Jazira haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.86 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.095 / defence 0.966 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.334. Data: 26 Al-Jazira games / 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Jazira 1.86 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.095 / def 0.966 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:45 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Jazira 2 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 55% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.09) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.85x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.43
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.96
1.09
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
29.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.09 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Pre-Season
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-3 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.86 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 22%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.