Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the stronger record — 4 wins to Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0, with 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a draw.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.913 / defence 0.959 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.171 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.342. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai bring a tight defence (rating 0.696, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 46 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.32 | Draw 3.84 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.97. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.913 / def 0.959 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.171 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 11 April 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 23% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.91) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.17x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 46 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
23%
4.32
26%
3.84
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.43
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.51 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 15D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.38 PPG from 45 outings (33W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.24 points per game from their last 21 away games (14W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.56 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 33W 8D 4L in their last 45 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.19 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 11 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2026: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 71% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 76% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.92 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.17 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 23% | Draw 26% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 51%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.