Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Dibba Al Hisn.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Dibba Al Hisn meet at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 16:05 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Ittihad Kalba's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Ittihad Kalba are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Dibba Al Hisn have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

Dibba Al Hisn away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Ittihad Kalba against 0.70 for Dibba Al Hisn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 0 for Dibba Al Hisn and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 2–2 Dibba Al Hisn — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Dibba Al Hisn half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% and Dibba Al Hisn 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Dibba Al Hisn 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.66 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.889 / defence 0.997 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.982 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.356. Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 48 games and Dibba Al Hisn's last 22.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 45% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al Hisn 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.20 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al Hisn 3.26. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Dibba Al Hisn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al Hisn 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights