Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Baniyas SC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 0L across 6 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 33% | Baniyas SC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 xG and Baniyas SC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.872 / defence 1.005 | Baniyas SC attack 0.703 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.219. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 12 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Baniyas SC 5.26. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% | Baniyas SC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 / Baniyas SC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.872 / def 1.005 | Baniyas SC attack 0.703 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Baniyas SC xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 3 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 49% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
49%
2.06
32%
3.11
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.32
0.86
Baniyas SC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0.86 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 6D 2L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.50 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad Kalba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.33 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.80 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
4
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 80%, Baniyas SC at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 60% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 60% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.46 xG and Baniyas SC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Baniyas SC attack 0.70 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 49% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 19%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 33%, Baniyas SC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.50 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.