Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023, 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Ittihad Kalba) versus 1.70 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al-Jazira and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Al-Jazira winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 55% versus Al-Jazira 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 47% | Al-Jazira 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.58 xG and Al-Jazira 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.068 / defence 1.178 | Al-Jazira attack 1.188 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.481. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 38 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Jazira 2.04. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.58 / Al-Jazira 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.068 / def 1.178 | Al-Jazira attack 1.188 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Al-Jazira xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 30% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
30%
3.37
21%
4.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.66
2.07
Al-Jazira xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
13%
7.95
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
4%
26.79
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.07 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 21W 5D 12L from 38 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 4D 8L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.74 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%, Al-Jazira 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 61% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 61% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 61% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.58 xG and Al-Jazira 2.07 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.07 / defence 1.18 against Al-Jazira attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 49%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 47%, Al-Jazira 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.