Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Jazira travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 December 2025, 12:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Jazira's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Al-Jazira and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 57% versus Al-Jazira 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al-Jazira 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.93 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.820 / defence 1.019 | Al-Jazira attack 1.076 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.320. Data: 35 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 35 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Jazira 2.04. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% | Al-Jazira 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 12:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.93 / Al-Jazira 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.820 / def 1.019 | Al-Jazira attack 1.076 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Jazira xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 12:50 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 24% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
24%
4.12
27%
3.75
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.38
1.45
Al-Jazira xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.53
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.45 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 11W 10D 14L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 15W 9D 11L from 35 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.23 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 6D 4L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 15W 9D 11L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 53%, Al-Jazira 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 59% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 65% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 59% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.93 xG and Al-Jazira 1.45 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Al-Jazira attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 24% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 49%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.23 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.