Al-Dhafra 0-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sharjah FC travel to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026, 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 games at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Dhafra 1.00 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Dhafra register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sharjah FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sharjah FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al-Dhafra.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
It is worth noting that Sharjah FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 62% versus Sharjah FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 62% | Sharjah FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.940 / defence 1.090 | Sharjah FC attack 1.148 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.336. Data: 13 Al-Dhafra games / 39 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 29% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Sharjah FC 2.13. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 67% | Sharjah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 29% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.25 / Sharjah FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.940 / def 1.090 | Sharjah FC attack 1.148 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 13:15 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 29% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 5W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
29%
3.50
24%
4.15
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.92
1.67
Sharjah FC xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.67 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 5W 1D 7L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Dhafra on 1.23 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Dhafra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 2.00 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sharjah FC have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-3 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Dhafra at 67%, Sharjah FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Al-Dhafra and 50% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Dhafra's games and 67% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Dhafra 0-2 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG and Sharjah FC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Dhafra fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Sharjah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 29% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 47%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 62%, Sharjah FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Dhafra 1.23 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.