Al Bataeh 3-4 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Al Nasr.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Bataeh welcome Al Nasr to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:55 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Bataeh have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Nasr — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al Nasr have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Bataeh) versus 1.30 (Al Nasr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Nasr 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Al Bataeh 1–3 Al Nasr — a Al Nasr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Bataeh trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Al Nasr trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 71% and Al Nasr 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 71% | Al Nasr 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Bataeh surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Nasr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.89 xG and Al Nasr 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.928 / defence 1.119 | Al Nasr attack 1.077 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.878 / away 1.717. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 31 games and Al Nasr's last 31.

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 21% | Al Nasr 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.78 | Draw 4.77 | Al Nasr 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.89 / 2.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 90% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 80% (last 10 away games).

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