Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al Bataeh welcome Al-Dhafra to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Bataeh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 0.90 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Bataeh, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Bataeh trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 60% and Al-Dhafra 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 53% | Al-Dhafra 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.55 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.819 / defence 1.280 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.924 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.406. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al Bataeh games / 15 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Dhafra 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Dhafra at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Al-Dhafra 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Bataeh 1.55 / Al-Dhafra 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.819 / def 1.280 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.924 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Dhafra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al-Dhafra xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Bataeh 1 - 1 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 36% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Dhafra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra?
Record (3 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Dhafra 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.82x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Dhafra Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.29
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.22
1.66
Al-Dhafra xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.66 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 9L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 0.80 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Dhafra's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.47 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Dhafra in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 1D 9L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Bataeh's home record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.57 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
2
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 57%, Al-Dhafra 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Bataeh) and 43% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al Bataeh have failed to score in 43% of games; Al-Dhafra in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Bataeh's games and 57% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Bataeh's recent games and 43% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.55 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.66 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.92 / defence 1.47, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 41%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 53%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.80 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.