Al Ain 1-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Ain at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Ain vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Ain host Sharjah FC at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's home record at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Ain 2.80 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Ain, 1 for Sharjah FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Sharjah FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 44% versus Sharjah FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 44% | Sharjah FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.37 xG and Sharjah FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.340 / defence 0.870 | Sharjah FC attack 1.062 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.383. Al Ain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Al Ain games / 25 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 39% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sharjah FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Ain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Ain 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 39% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Ain 1.37 / Sharjah FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.340 / def 0.870 | Sharjah FC attack 1.062 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sharjah FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Al Ain 1 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Ain vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 39% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Ain and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Ain 0W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in?
Al Ain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Ain's attack at 1.34x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.83
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
Sharjah FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.28 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.56 PPG on a 20W 4D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 17W 3D 5L from 25 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Ain on 2.56 PPG, Sharjah FC on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.67 PPG from 12 outings (10W 2D 0L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Ain are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.80 scored and 0.96 conceded. Al Ain's scoring rate against Sharjah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Sharjah FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 20W 4D 1L in their last 25 games (2.56 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 17W 3D 5L in their last 25 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Ain's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.67 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Ain and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Al Ain won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Ain
4
Draws
1
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-5 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Sharjah FC?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 58%, Sharjah FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Ain) and 50% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al Ain's recent matches and 42% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Ain vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Ain's recent games and 50% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al Ain and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.37 xG and Sharjah FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.34 / defence 0.87 against Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 39% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 35%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 44%, Sharjah FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Ain 2.56 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.