Al Ain 3-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Ain at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al Ain. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Ain stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Ain have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Ain register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Ain, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Al Ain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Ain trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Ain 48% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 45% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 2.04 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.574 / defence 0.802 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.946 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.338. Al Ain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.574 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Al Ain games / 29 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Ain 2.04 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.574 / def 0.802 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.946 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain 3 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 60% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (2 meetings): Al Ain 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al Ain (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.28
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Al Ain xG
Total xG
3.06
1.01
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
45.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.01 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Al Ain have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 21W 6D 2L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Ain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 8W 10D 11L from 29 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Ain have posted 2.57 PPG from 14 outings (11W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Ain are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 21W 6D 2L in their last 29 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Ain's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.57 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Ain have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2021, when Al Ain won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al Ain
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 57%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Ain) and 36% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Ain's games and 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Ain's recent games and 36% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Ain and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-0 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 2.04 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.01 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.57 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 17%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 45%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.