Ajman 1-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajman (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajman face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 3.10. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Ajman have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Ajman hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Khorfakkan, with 3 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 4–1 with Ajman winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajman and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 52% versus Khorfakkan 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 52% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.996 / defence 1.010 | Khorfakkan attack 0.883 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.193. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ajman games / 31 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 52% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 24%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 4.17. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Khorfakkan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 52% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Ajman 1.67 / Khorfakkan 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.996 / def 1.010 | Khorfakkan attack 0.883 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Ajman (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 1 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 52% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Record (8 meetings): Ajman 4W | Draws 3 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.12
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.74
1.06
Khorfakkan xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
22.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ajman and 1.06 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 12W 4D 15L from 31 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 14L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 7W 2D 6L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.58 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 12W 4D 15L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.53 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 73%, Khorfakkan at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ajman and 80% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ajman's games and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ajman's matches and 80% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Ajman 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Ajman 1-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 52% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 24%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 52%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.