Ajman 5-1 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Dibba Al Hisn travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024, 14:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al Hisn stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dibba Al Hisn have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dibba Al Hisn trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 67% and Dibba Al Hisn 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajman 67% | Dibba Al Hisn 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.63 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.885 / defence 1.013 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.720 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.582. Data: 29 Ajman games / 3 Dibba Al Hisn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajman 49% | Draw 25% | Dibba Al Hisn 27%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Dibba Al Hisn 3.70. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Dibba Al Hisn 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 49% | Draw 25% | Dibba Al Hisn 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Ajman 1.63 / Dibba Al Hisn 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.885 / def 1.013 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.720 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.582 • Poisson stance: Ajman (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dibba Al Hisn xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn kick off?
Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn kicked off at 14:20 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Ajman 5 - 1 Dibba Al Hisn.
Where is Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn part of?
Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 49% chance of winning, Dibba Al Hisn a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn in?
Ajman (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.89) and Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al Hisn's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.08
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.79
1.16
Dibba Al Hisn xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ajman and 1.16 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Ajman have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dibba Al Hisn's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 0.00 PPG, Dibba Al Hisn on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al Hisn are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dibba Al Hisn in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Dibba Al Hisn
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Dibba Al Hisn have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajman
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al Hisn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajman have won 2, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 67%, Dibba Al Hisn at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ajman and 67% for Dibba Al Hisn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 33% of games; Dibba Al Hisn in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Dibba Al Hisn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Dibba Al Hisn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ajman's games and 67% of Dibba Al Hisn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Dibba Al Hisn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ajman's matches and 67% of Dibba Al Hisn's.
Do Ajman and Dibba Al Hisn tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dibba Al Hisn in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajman run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dibba Al Hisn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Dibba Al Hisn 5-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.63 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 49% | Draw 25% | Dibba Al Hisn 27%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 67%, Dibba Al Hisn 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 0.00 PPG, Dibba Al Hisn 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman scored 5 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al Hisn shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.