Ajman 3-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dibba Al-Fujairah make the trip to Ajman Stadium to face Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Ajman (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Ajman's favour (1.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajman lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ajman — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 50% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 2.42 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.139 / defence 0.986 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.670 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.415. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ajman games / 16 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 70% | Draw 17% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 13%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ajman (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 60% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 70% | Draw 17% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 55% | xG Ajman 2.42 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.139 / def 0.986 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.670 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Ajman (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Ajman 3 - 2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 70% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (1 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Ajman (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ajman's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.67x) against Ajman's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 42/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.83
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.35
0.94
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
1%
88.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Ajman and 0.94 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajman come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 2D 6L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al-Fujairah sit at 0.25 PPG from 16 outings (1W 1D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ajman's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.44 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 14L in their last 16 (0.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Ajman's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.75 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ajman or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ajman
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-2 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 62%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ajman) and 38% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ajman's recent matches and 38% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ajman's recent games and 38% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 3-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.42 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.67 / defence 1.37, drawn from 42/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 70% | Draw 17% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 13%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 50%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.