Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vorskla Poltava at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.40 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Ruh Lviv 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 1–4 Ruh Lviv — a Ruh Lviv win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 52% | Ruh Lviv 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vorskla Poltava surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Ruh Lviv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / defence 1.227 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.154 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.212. Vorskla Poltava's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 46.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 4.29 | Draw 3.64 | Ruh Lviv 2.03. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vorskla Poltava's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 60% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.13 / Ruh Lviv 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / def 1.227 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.154 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 23% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 46 games and Ruh Lviv's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
23%
4.29
27%
3.64
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.85
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
23.91
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.72 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 10D 17L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 13W 18D 15L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.46 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 5D 7L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 5D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 13W 18D 15L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.59 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won Ruh Lviv 4-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
4
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Ruh Lviv 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 73% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 52%, Ruh Lviv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.46 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.