Vorskla Poltava 2-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, LNZ Cherkasy are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vorskla Poltava lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (43 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (43 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 49% versus LNZ Cherkasy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.22 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.822 / defence 1.144 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.051 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.048. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Vorskla Poltava games / 43 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.22 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.822 / def 1.144 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.051 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.26
LNZ Cherkasy xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.82) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.05x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.53
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.47
1.26
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.26 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 10D 21L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 16W 11D 16L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.37 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 7D 6L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.00 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 53%, LNZ Cherkasy 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Vorskla Poltava) and 42% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 37% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play LNZ Cherkasy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 58% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 42% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.22 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.05 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, LNZ Cherkasy 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.07 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.