Vorskla Poltava 1-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vorskla Poltava have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Vorskla Poltava, 1.40 for Kryvbas KR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vorskla Poltava 0W, Kryvbas KR 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Kryvbas KR 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Kryvbas KR 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.36 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.051 / defence 1.048 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.774 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.194. Data: 44 Vorskla Poltava games / 26 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 46% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 27%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Kryvbas KR 3.70. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 50% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 46% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.36 / Kryvbas KR 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.051 / def 1.048 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.774 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kryvbas KR xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 46% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.05x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.77x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.64
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.33
0.97
Kryvbas KR xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.97 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 6D 11L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.35 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.85 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.50 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 1-4 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Kryvbas KR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Vorskla Poltava) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Kryvbas KR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.36 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.97 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 46% | Draw 27% | Kryvbas KR 27%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, Kryvbas KR 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.27 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.