Veres Rivne 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Premier League outings this term — 2.33 points per game. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vorskla Poltava arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 33% versus Vorskla Poltava 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Veres Rivne 67% | Vorskla Poltava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.786 / defence 1.008 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.224. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Veres Rivne games / 3 Vorskla Poltava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 35%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Vorskla Poltava 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 33% | Vorskla Poltava 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Veres Rivne 1.03 / Vorskla Poltava 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.786 / def 1.008 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vorskla Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Veres Rivne 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 34% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 0.79x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.85x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.32
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.05 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 2.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Veres Rivne or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 33%, Vorskla Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Veres Rivne and 67% for Vorskla Poltava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 33%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Veres Rivne's matches and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 4, as Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 34% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 35%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 67%, Vorskla Poltava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.