Veres Rivne 1-3 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Veres Rivne welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Veres Rivne's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 8 matches, Livyi Bereh stand at 2W 2D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On current form, Veres Rivne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (last 8 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (last 8 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 62% versus Livyi Bereh 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 50% | Livyi Bereh 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.10 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / defence 1.047 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.723 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.239. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 34 games and Livyi Bereh's last 4.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.55 | Draw 3.30 | Livyi Bereh 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Veres Rivne's last 10 home games and Livyi Bereh's last 8 games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 60% (last 10 home games) | Livyi Bereh 25% (last 8 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.10 / Livyi Bereh 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / def 1.047 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.723 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Livyi Bereh xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Veres Rivne 1 - 3 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.81) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 34 games and Livyi Bereh's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.30
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.04
0.94
Livyi Bereh xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.94 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 25%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Livyi Bereh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
2
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2025: Livyi Bereh 2-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 62%, Livyi Bereh 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 25% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 38% of Livyi Bereh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Veres Rivne 1-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.10 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Livyi Bereh outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 50%, Livyi Bereh 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Veres Rivne shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Livyi Bereh scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.