SK Poltava 0-2 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Poltava vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to Zirka Stadium to face SK Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
SK Poltava (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zirka Stadium, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 6L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
Kudrivka have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's away record: 1W 1D 7L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for SK Poltava, 0.60 for Kudrivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SK Poltava lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Kudrivka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SK Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Poltava 65% and Kudrivka 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Poltava 71% | Kudrivka 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 1.27 xG and Kudrivka 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.763 / defence 1.466 | Kudrivka attack 0.762 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.196. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing SK Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 SK Poltava games / 17 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 38%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kudrivka are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kudrivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SK Poltava 50% | Kudrivka 44%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Poltava vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zirka Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG SK Poltava 1.27 / Kudrivka 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SK Poltava attack 0.763 / def 1.466 | Kudrivka attack 0.762 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
SK Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kudrivka xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Poltava vs Kudrivka kick off?
SK Poltava vs Kudrivka kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 2 March 2026 at Zirka Stadium.
What was the final score in SK Poltava vs Kudrivka?
SK Poltava 0 - 2 Kudrivka.
Where is SK Poltava vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Zirka Stadium.
What competition is SK Poltava vs Kudrivka part of?
SK Poltava vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win SK Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives SK Poltava a 35% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SK Poltava and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will SK Poltava vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Kudrivka?
Record (1 meetings): SK Poltava 0W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are SK Poltava and Kudrivka in?
SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SK Poltava's attack rating (0.76) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.76x) against SK Poltava's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.80
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
SK Poltava xG
Total xG
2.61
1.34
Kudrivka xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SK Poltava and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for SK Poltava and 1.34 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SK Poltava come into this having played 17 games, going 2W 3D 12L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kudrivka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SK Poltava's home form reads 1W 1D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.12 points per game from 8 outings (0W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Poltava are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.24 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Poltava have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Kudrivka in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Poltava
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Poltava and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
SK Poltava have gone 2W 3D 12L in their last 17 games (0.53 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Poltava at home or Kudrivka away?
SK Poltava's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Poltava at home: 0.50 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SK Poltava
0
Draws
2
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Poltava and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, SK Poltava have won 0, Kudrivka have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Poltava and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when SK Poltava 0-2 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between SK Poltava and Kudrivka?
Kudrivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Poltava 50%, Kudrivka 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SK Poltava) and 50% (Kudrivka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Poltava have failed to score in 38% of games; Kudrivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Poltava home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Poltava play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Poltava vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SK Poltava's matches and 50% of Kudrivka's.
Do SK Poltava and Kudrivka tend to score early?
SK Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kudrivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat SK Poltava 0-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 1.27 xG and Kudrivka 1.34 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.47 against Kudrivka attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 38%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 71%, Kudrivka 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Poltava's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kudrivka's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.