Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 1L across 7 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (2.57 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 46% versus Ruh Lviv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 62% | Ruh Lviv 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.67 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.748 / defence 1.000 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.783 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.255. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.748 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 13 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 73% | Draw 16% | Ruh Lviv 11%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Ruh Lviv 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 71% | Ruh Lviv 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 73% | Draw 16% | Ruh Lviv 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 59% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.67 / Ruh Lviv 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.748 / def 1.000 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.783 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ruh Lviv xG
59%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 73% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.75x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.78x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
73%
1.38
16%
6.07
11%
9.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.65
0.98
Ruh Lviv xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.07
16%
Draw
9.17
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
7%
14.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
1%
132.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.98 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.46 PPG on a 10W 2D 1L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.77 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 10W 2D 1L in their last 13 games (2.46 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-4 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
3
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, Ruh Lviv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 17% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 17% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.67 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.98 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.75 / defence 1.00 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 73% | Draw 16% | Ruh Lviv 11%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 62%, Ruh Lviv 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.