Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 0D 1L this season (9 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 3.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Kharkiv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Shakhtar Donetsk's favour (2.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shakhtar Donetsk lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus FC Kharkiv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 61% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.087 / defence 0.982 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.967 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.204. Data: 18 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 18 FC Kharkiv games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 48% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 27%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | FC Kharkiv 3.70. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | FC Kharkiv 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (18 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 48% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 / FC Kharkiv 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.087 / def 0.982 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.967 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Kharkiv xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 48% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (1 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.97x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.04
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
FC Kharkiv xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.14 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 18 games, going 15W 2D 1L for 2.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (6W 1D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. FC Kharkiv haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 8W 0D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Pre-Season
FC Kharkiv
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 games (2.61 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.67 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-7 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, FC Kharkiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shakhtar Donetsk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/18 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 48% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 27%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.22 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.