Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena Lviv this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.40 for FC Kharkiv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ruh Lviv lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 35% versus FC Kharkiv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 35% | FC Kharkiv 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.046 / defence 1.136 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.949 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.142. Data: 48 Ruh Lviv games / 17 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 36% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 37%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 9 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 36% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.22 / FC Kharkiv 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.046 / def 1.136 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.949 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Kharkiv xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 9 March 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 36% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (7 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 3 | FC Kharkiv 2W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.05) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.95x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 48/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.66
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
FC Kharkiv xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.23 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 12L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 9W 8D 3L from 20 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.10 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 8D 3L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 67%, FC Kharkiv 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ruh Lviv) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 33%; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ruh Lviv's games and 56% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Ruh Lviv 0-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.22 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 36% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 37%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 35%, FC Kharkiv 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.