Ruh Lviv vs Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Desna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Desna make the trip to Arena L'viv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena L'viv, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ruh Lviv are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Desna's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Desna have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Ruh Lviv, 0.90 for Desna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ruh Lviv 0W, Desna 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Desna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Desna — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 41% versus Desna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 24% | Desna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG and Desna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.872 / defence 1.023 | Desna attack 0.798 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.221. Desna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Ruh Lviv games / 18 Desna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Desna 31%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Desna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 38% | Desna 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Desna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.17 / Desna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.872 / def 1.023 | Desna attack 0.798 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Desna xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Desna kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Desna kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Arena L'viv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Desna part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Desna is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Desna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Desna will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Desna?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Desna 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Desna in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.87) and Desna's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.80x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.41
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.16
1.00
Desna xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.00 for Desna, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Desna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 7L across 17 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.29 for Desna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Ruh Lviv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Desna's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Desna in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Desna have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Desna away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.62 PPG; Desna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
1
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Desna?
From 1 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Desna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Desna last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2021, when Desna 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Desna?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 38%, Desna 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Desna).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Desna in 38%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Desna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Desna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Desna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Desna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Desna tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Desna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruh Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Desna finished level at 0-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.17 xG and Desna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Desna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Desna attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 29% | Desna 31%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 24%, Desna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Desna's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG, Desna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.